Q1 real estate sales stats | Somerset Co. 2010

Let’s take a  quick view of the residential closed sales data in Somerset County for the first quarter of 2010.  There were a total of 491 residential properties that sold from January 1 to March 31, 2010. The mean price was $429,486, while the median price was $334,000. The mean list price for those properties was $451,551 and the median list price was $349,000 with the lowest sold price at $66,000 and the highest sold price coming in at $3,000,000.

A Y-O-Y comparative analysis reveals that both the mean and the median prices of residential sold properties rose from 2009. Q1 2010 mean price increased by $28,690 or approximately 6.6% over Q1 2009 prices. While the Q1 2010 median price climbed $13,500 or about 4.1% over Q1 2009. Additionally, there were 95 fewer sales in 2009. So for the first quarter of 2010, both volume and prices are up in the Somerset County housing market. The question is, can it and will it continue?

The variance of standard deviation between Q1 2010 mean and median price is; 4558788098, while the standard deviation is 67518.79811.

The variance and SD for the mean and median of Q1 2009 is; 3223723808 and the SD is 56777.8461. Data for 2009 has less of a spread and shows the increased volatility when compared to the 2010 data.

Some indicators worth noting are that unemployment has  risen in Somerset County from 7.4% in December 09 to over 8% in February of 2010. New Jersey unemployment figures have also risen from 9.7% in December to 10.3% in February of 2010. (figures are unadjusted from the DoLWD)

As long as unemployment keeps going up, eventually more loans will be delinquent and subsequently more mortgages will default. The impending shadow inventory of short sales and foreclosures ready to hit the market will definitely hurt in the short-term.

The absorption rate for the first quarter was 2.7 months. If that holds, the average will be about 10 to 11 month supply of unsold inventory in Somerset County. That figure is nearly inline with the state as well as the nation.

The analysis excludes two data sets, purposely. The first is DOM, or days on market. DOM listed in the MLS is usually not credible and unreliable data. If a property was listed then taken off the market, the DOM resets and it ‘appears’ that the property just went on the market. DOM should be cumulative from the first day in any given year. if the property was listed the prior year, the agent comments should state that fact.

The second is the ratio of listing price to selling price (%LP/%SP). If a property was listed prior to the most recent, it will not be reflected in the ratio. A property could have been listed several times prior to the last listing before its eventual sale. Once again, unreliable and not credible data. The typical 97% LP/SP data shown on many websites is not indicative of the original list price nor how many times the list price was reduced. Therefore, publishing this manipulated data would only distort the analysis as well as to only serve to benefit  the seller and the sellers agent.

Almost every internet home site, realtor, and online housing market report will include these two statistical sets of numbers, unfortunately, 90% of the reported numbers are false.  What is regrettable is that the public does have access to this data and will never be enlightened to truth, unless their agent or representative tells them so. Which is sadly, highly unlikely…

Stirling, NJ real estate market overview

Mid March Market Snapshot for Stirling, NJ.

The difference from the mean list price in relation to the mean sales price is only about a 6% delta. Given the limited number of properties sold and currently for sale, the delta is rather close as properties sold for 94% of the asking prices. The mean (average) sales price from exactly one year ago was $450,090. Surprisingly, the y-o-y data shows an increase in price of about $46,000 or approximately +9%.

Stirling, (Long Hill Twp) NJ in the southern part of Morris County is located adjacent to Bernards Twp in Somerset County. Stirling is sandwiched between Millington and Gillette along the I-78 corridor in Central New Jersey. Stirling is a quaint, quiet community with a small hometown feel. There are numerous retail shops, restaurants, grocery stores and public facilities along Valley Road/Springfield Avenue for the borough residents. One of the best amenities is that the Stirling Train Station is on the Gladstone branch of the NJ Transit Morristown line for easy access to Northern NJ and NYC.